{"code":20000,"message":"OK","data":{"asset_tags":[{"key":"zhaiquan","name":"债券","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"zhaiquan"},{"key":"waihui","name":"外汇","ancestor_paths":["zichan"],"banner_key":"waihui"}],"audio":{"title":""},"audio_info":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e699f665-8360-44d1-9ee2-d7afa0109fda.mp3","start_time":"0.000000","duration":"95.400000","size":"286245"},"audio_uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/e699f665-8360-44d1-9ee2-d7afa0109fda.mp3","author":{"article_count":1799,"author_kind":"default","avatar":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/814d8326-6a36-4869-8e44-3009ef51ff65","bio":"","display_name":"鲍奕龙","editor_choice_articles":[],"followers_count":1787,"id":120000004827,"is_followed":false,"uri":"https://wallstreetcn.com/authors/120000004827"},"categories":[{"key":"global","name":"见闻首页"},{"key":"finance","name":"金融"},{"key":"us-shares","name":"港美股"},{"key":"bonds","name":"债券"},{"key":"forex","name":"外汇"},{"key":"wscn-platform","name":"见闻"}],"columns":[],"comment_count":0,"comment_disabled":false,"content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eNick Timiraos认为，美联储官员此次会议不再是何时降息，而是是否还能向市场维持降息预期的承诺。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e3月17日，被市场称为“新美联储通讯社”的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos指出，\u003cstrong\u003e中东局势的持续升级很可能强化官员们维持利率不变的共识。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e在此背景下，本周会议的焦点将集中于官员们如何就未来数月之后的政策路径发出信号。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e若美联储在措辞或预测上释放出降息周期可能已终结的信号，将对利率预期及风险资产定价产生直接冲击。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNick Timiraos指出有三个方面值得关注：\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv data-testid=\"stHeadingWithActionElements\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e首先是政策声明。\u003c/strong\u003e在1月会议上，已有少数官员力推删除声明中暗示\"下一步行动为降息\"的相关表述，但未能成功。\u003cstrong\u003e若本次会议最终做出这一修改，将是美联储首次明确承认本轮宽松周期或已走到尽头，信号意义极为强烈。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv data-testid=\"stHeadingWithActionElements\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e第二个观察窗口是季度预测摘要（SEP）。\u003c/strong\u003e本次会议恰逢季度预测更新，19位与会官员将分别提交对通胀走势及未来数年利率水平的预判。\u003cstrong\u003e这份点阵图将直观呈现官员群体对降息时间表的最新集体判断，是衡量政策倾向变化的重要量化参考。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e第三个窗口是会后新闻发布会。\u003c/strong\u003eNick Timiraos强调，美联储主席鲍威尔可以通过发布会的表述，对前两项信号加以强化或弱化。\u003cstrong\u003e市场将密切解读其措辞，以判断美联储对政策转向的真实态度究竟偏向鹰派还是鸽派。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv data-testid=\"stHeadingWithActionElements\"\u003e \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"color: #666; margin-bottom: 15px;\"\u003e风险提示及免责条款\u003c/div\u003e\n          \u003cdiv style=\"font-size: 12px;font-family: 黑体;color: #666;line-height: 20px;\"\u003e\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          \u003c/div\u003e\n","content_short":"\"新美联储通讯社\"Nick Timiraos指出，中东局势升级强化了美联储按兵不动共识，关注三大信号窗口：政策声明措辞、点阵图预测和鲍威尔新闻发布会，这些将决定本轮宽松周期是否就此终结，任何鹰派信号都将直接冲击利率预期与风险资产定价。","custom_tag":"","display_time":1773786091,"funds":null,"has_transfer_audio":true,"id":3767770,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2125ba9b-ca20-40f3-865c-d80a10ef8899.png","height":459,"width":689,"size":477511},"images":[{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/content_default_4.jpg","height":1416,"width":2125,"size":1438897}],"influence_score":0,"is_need_pay":false,"is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_video":false,"layout":"wscn-layout","limited_time":0,"membership_uri":"","next":{"id":3767701,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/93cf2ce5-32d7-42b4-b5c0-c4c6bdea896f.png","height":557,"width":788,"size":761113},"title":"静待美联储决议，股油同涨，美债走强，美元两连跌，黄金连续两日持稳于5000关口","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767701"},"pageviews":8859,"plates":[],"previous":{"id":3767756,"image":{"uri":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ab7769d8-8b28-4618-b2f4-fdf788f24f93.png","height":505,"width":757,"size":466160},"title":"特朗普称对伊行动无需北约和日韩澳帮助，伊朗宣告打击进入\"加速阶段\"、总统证实拉里贾尼身亡","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767756"},"related_topics":[],"show_like":true,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","subtitle":"","tags":[],"theme_group_map":null,"themes":[],"title":"“新美联储通讯社”：从\"何时降息\"到\"是否降息\"，关注三大信号窗口","unshow_content_short":false,"words_count":459}}